Project on Defense Alternatives







The Readiness Crisis of the U.S. Air Force:
A Review and Diagnosis

Project on Defense Alternatives Briefing Report #10
Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
22 April 1999

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[Executive Summary] [Sections 1-3] [Section 4] [Conclusion] [Bibliography]


Table Of Contents
      Executive Summary


1.   Introduction
1.1 The big picture: comprehensive measures of military resources and activity
1.2 Why focus on the Air Force?
1.3 Alternative hypotheses on readiness problems
1.4 A framework for analyzing the readiness condition of the USAF

2.   Parameters of the Recent Crisis
2.1 Mission capable rates and unit readiness
2.2 The delayed effects of budgetary action
2.3 Overall unit readiness ratings

3.    Mid-term Problems: The USAF Pilot Shortage
3.1 The pilot inventory: a tour in time
3.2 A shortage in the making
3.3 The pilot retention problem
3.4 Ending the pilot shortage/surplus cycle

4.   The Long View: Air Force Readiness in the post-Cold War Era
4.1 A twenty year perspective on mission capable rates
4.2 Cannibalization in context
4.3 Optempo and the burden of operations overseas
      4.3.1 Gauging the increase in operational tempo
      4.3.2 Managing operational tempo
      4.3.3 Optempo and training readiness
4.4 Toward a broader view of optempo
      4.4.1 "Tempo" at wing level
      4.4.2 Managing optempo
5.  Conclusion


    Bibliography


    Tables
Table 1. Change in Readiness Resources and Military Personnel 1976-1998
Table 2. Change in Military Personnel and Resources
Table 3. Mission Capable Rates for Aircraft (Active and Reserve Components)
Table 4. Air Combat Command Mission Capable Rate History
Table 5. Air Combat Command Cannibalization Rates
Table 6. USAF Active-Component Attach, Fighter and Interceptor Aircraft
Table 7. USAF Flying Hours Indexed to 1981 (Active-Component, Fighter and Bomber Crews)
Table 8. Change in USAF Personnel Overseas
Table 9. Flying Hours for C-5 and C-41 Aircraft and Pilots, 1989 and 1994
Table 10. Aircraft Mishap and Destroyed Rates Per 100,000 Flying Hours


    Figures
Fig. 1. Change in Readiness Resources and Military Personnel 1976-1998
Fig. 2. Growth in Not Mission Capable and Cannibalization Rates
Fig. 3. Air Force Aggregate Mission Capable Rate
Fig. 4. USAF and ACC Mission Capable Rate History as of 5 Jan 1999
Fig. 5. Discrepancy in Decline of ACC Mission Capable and Unit Readiness Rates, Indexed to 1995
Fig. 6. Air Force Active Component Pilots by Functional Assignment, January 1999
Fig. 7. Percentage Surplus and Deficit of Air Force Active Component Pilot Inventory Relative to Requirements, Historical Data and Projections: 1950 to 2001
Fig. 8. Air Combat Command Mission Capable Rate History
Fig. 9. Air Combat Command Cannibalization Rates
Fig. 10. Temporary Deployment Rates USAF Active Fighter Crews
Fig. 11. Temporary Duty Rates of USAF Active Lift/Refueling Crews
Fig. 12. Temporary Duty Rates of USAF Active C2/EW/Reecce Crews
Fig. 13. Aircraft Mishap and Destroyed Rates Per 100,000 Flying Hours
Fig. 14. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All F-16s: 1988-1995
Fig. 15. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All F-15s
Fig. 16. Flight Hours for Operational Training and Peace Operations Relative to Those for the Cold War Standard, All A-10s
Fig. 17. Average Time Allocation: Three Wings, 8th Air Force
Fig. 18. Theoretical Annual Schedule: F-15 Squadron, 1st Fighter Wing
Fig. 19. Actual Schedule: F-15 Squadron, 1st Fighter Wing
Fig. 20. Potential Solution: Fighter Squadron Time Allocation


Citation: Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, The Readiness Crisis of the U.S. Air Force: A Review and Diagnosis, Project on Defense Alternatives Briefing Report #10. Cambridge, MA: Commonwealth Institute, April 1999.
http://www.comw.org/pda/afreadtc.html

cover of report as published in Taiwan


 Cover of this report as published by
 Taiwanese military translation service.















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