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Iraq
  Insurgent Iraq: Links to full-text online articles and reports about the Iraqi insurgency a PDA compilation, updated 07 February 2008. What is the nature, history, and organization of the Iraqi insurgency? Who are the insurgents? This guide links to essential full-text online articles and reports regarding the insurgency.
Iraq War Withdrawal and Exit Plans a PDA compilation, updated 02 February 2008. Major plans by analysts and experts, positions of U.S. political leaders, and selected commentaries on exiting Iraq.
Army reset costs, cost of permanent bases in Iraq, National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, Pakistan's state of emergency by Bipasha Ray. Defense Analysis Bulletin #5, 08 December 2007.
 Is Worry about Pakistani Nukes Serving to Keep the U.S. in Iraq? by Charles Knight, PDA commentary, July 2007.
Congressional withdrawal plans, permanent bases in Iraq, increase in ground troops by Bipasha Ray. Defense Analysis Bulletin #4, 01 May 2007.
Resolving Iraq: Progress depends on a short timeline for US troop withdrawal by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #40, 18 January 2007 (printable full text .pdf). The memo argues that the large-scale US military presence in Iraq makes sustainable progress toward peace and stability there impossible. It advances an alternative approach to stabilizing Iraq that hinges on a short timeline for US troop withdrawal and a new international effort including Iraq's neighbors.
A Troop Surge Can't Win a Victory from a Bad Decision for War, by Carl Conetta, Common Dreams, 10 January 2007.
More troops for Iraq? Time to just say "No" by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #39, 09 January 2007 (printable full text .pdf). There is no reason to believe that a marginal increase in the US troop presence in Iraq will turn the tide there. The memo reviews relevant data on troop strength, insurgent activity, and Iraqi public opinion. It traces America's troubles in Iraq to the nature of the mission, which it concludes is founded on strategic error.
War & Consequences: Global Terrorism has Increased Since 9/11 Attacks (full text .html) (printable full text .pdf) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #38, 25 September 2006. The memo analyzes the change in the incidence of terrorism since 11 September 2001, finding a distinct increase. It also summarizes the findings of various studies on the relationship between the Iraq war and terrorism which show that in the words of one, the Iraq war "has reinforced the determination of terrorists who were already committed to attacking the West and motivated others who were not."
Losing Hearts and Minds: World Public Opinion and post-9/11 US Security Policy (full text .html) (printable full text .pdf) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #37, 14 September 2006. Reviews the change in global public opinion regarding US security policy since 9/11. It finds that opinion has turned strongly against US leadership, to the benefit of Russia, China and radical Islam.
Masque of Democracy: Iraqi Election System Still Disfavors Sunni Arabs, Favors Kurds (full text .html) (printable full text .pdf) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #35, 10 December 2005. The memo assesses Iraqi election procedures for the December 2005 parliamentary elections. It detects problems of structural bias and shows how the procedures feed communal tensions. Includes table of province populations and assigned council seats.
400 Days and Out: A Strategy for Solving the Iraq Impasse by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #34, 19 July 2005.The memo outlines a strategy for substantially defusing the Iraqi insurgency, de-escalating the inter-communal conflict there, and enabling near-total US troop withdrawal by September 2006.
Appendix: The Iraqi Insurgency & Iraq Security Force Development: Selected Bibliography (printable .pdf file)
Vicious Circle: The Dynamics of Occupation and Resistance in Iraq, Part One. Patterns of Popular Discontent (full text .html) (printable full text .pdf) (executive summary .html) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #10, 18 May 2005. An analysis of Iraqi public opinion data and interviews suggests that coalition military activity is contributing substantially to anti-coalition sentiments. A "vicious circle" is indicated, whereby counter-insurgent operations create support for the insurgency. The report tracks coalition military activity and relates it to Iraqi discontent and insurgent activity. Differences among Iraqi communities are also assessed.
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The US Debate on Exiting Iraq by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #33, 07 March 2005.
The Iraqi election: "first step" or detour? by Carl Conetta, Global Beat Syndicate, 07 February 2005.
What do Iraqis want? Iraqi attitudes on the occupation, US withdrawal, Iraqi governments, and quality of life (full text .html) (printable full text .pdf), 01 February 2005. Summary of data from 2004 and 2005 Iraqi public opinion polls.
The Iraqi election "bait and switch": faulty poll will not bring peace or US withdrawal (full text .html) (executive summary .html) (printable full text .pdf) (printable executive summary .pdf) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #17, January 2005. Problems of bias, insecurity, and voter confusion have undermined the democratic value of the election. Nonetheless, it will win greater international legitimacy for the US mission and enable more vigorous counter-insurgency operations. US withdrawal will not soon occur. The memo examines likely electoral outcomes and the factors shaping the new Iraqi government. An addendum summarizes Iraqi public opinion regarding the occupation and US forces.
Is the Iraq war sapping America's military power? Cautionary data and perspectives by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Melissa Murphy. Project on Defense Alternatives, 22 October 2004.
Charts, Reference Material:
Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq (full text .html) (executive summary .html) (printable full text .pdf) (printable executive summary .pdf) by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #16, July 2004. Can the "new" approach to the Iraq mission succeed where the previous effort failed? "No," the fundamental problem is mission goals that are overly ambitious, intrusive, and polarizing. The report analyzes the failures of the US postwar mission in Iraq and proposes essential steps toward peace, stability, and US withdrawal.
Outsourcing Torture and the Problems of 'Quality Control' by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 18 May 2004. The numbers of prisoners for processing in Iraq were so great that government interrogators began to rely on the assistance of under-trained and youthful soldiers who were so "shockingly undisciplined" that they took photos of their activities to send home -- yet another indicator of how poorly prepared for a large scale occupation the United States was before going into Iraq. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus and Antiwar.com Websites. (printable .pdf file)
Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a "New Warfare" (full text .html) (executive summary .html) (printable full text .pdf) (printable executive summary .pdf) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #9, 18 February 2004. Examines the Pentagon's treatment of the civilian casualty issue in the Iraq and Afghan wars, reviews the "spin" and "news frames" used by defense officials to shape the public debate over casualties, and critiques the concept of a "precision warfare" as misleading. Case studies include the Baghdad bombing campaign. An appendix provides a comprehensive Guide to Surveys and Reporting on Casualties in the Afghan and Iraq Wars.
The New Occupation: How Preventive War is Wrecking the Military by Charles Knight and Marcus Corbin, Security Policy Working Group Commentary, 04 January 2004.
The Wages of War: Iraqi Combatant and Noncombatant Fatalities in the 2003 Conflict
(full text .html) (executive summary .html) (printable full text .pdf) (printable executive summary .pdf) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #8, 20 October 2003. How many Iraqis died in the 2003 Iraq war? What are the implications for stability in Iraq, the war on terrorism, and the "new warfare"? The report estimates the total number of Iraqis killed in the 2003 war, based on hospital and burial reports, combat statistics, and battlefield testimony from both sides. Uniquely, the report distinguishes noncombatant and combatant civilians. And it compares the experience of Operations Iraqi Freedom and Desert Storm. With two appendices: Appendix 1. Survey and assessment of reported Iraqi combatant fatalities in the 2003 War (.pdf version) and Appendix 2. Iraqi Combatant and Noncombatant Fatalities in the 1991 Gulf War (.pdf version)
Catastrophic Interdiction: Air Power and the Collapse of the Iraqi Field Army in the 2003 War by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #30, 26 September 2003 (.pdf file). Examines how air power helped bring about the collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army in the 2003 war. Compares the air campaigns of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Desert Storm, and estimates combatant casualties due to air interdiction in the 2003 war.
Civilian Casualties in the 2003 Iraq War: A Compendium of Accounts and Reports compiled by Melissa Murphy and Carl Conetta. 21 May 2003. A .pdf version is also available.
Burning Down the House: How the Iraq War Will Affect the International System by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #15, 06 May 2003. Nothing could be worse for arms control prospects and international stability than the widespread impression that military activism and unilateralism are on the rise. This puts a premium on re-militarization and discourages de-militarization. A .pdf version is also available.
What Colin Powell Showed Us: The End of Arms Control and the Normalization of War by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Report #14, 05 May 2003. An appreciation of the value and limits of arms control is necessary in order to understand how debasing the standards of proof leads ultimately to the demise of diplomacy and the unnecessary resort to war. A .pdf version is also available.
Reconstructing Iraq: Costs and Possible Income Sources by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #28, 25 April 2003. A review of accounts reveals a severe shortage of reconstruction funds. A .pdf version is also available.
Disarming Iraq: What Did the UN Missions Accomplish? by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #27, 25 April 2003. A review of the evidence finds that while UN disarmament missions contributed substantially to disarming Iraq and increasing confidence, they also left substantial residual uncertainties. However, the disarmament missions served to tightly constrain Iraq's WMD capability and undercut its effectiveness and standard military deterrence would have acted to keep this residual threat in check. A .pdf version is also available.
As Baghdad Falls Howard Dean Seeks to Reassure the Democratic Establishment of His Support for Unilateralist Options by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 14 April 2003. On 17 April 2003 Howard Dean replied on Common Dreams at http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0417-07.htm.
 Prevention or Preemption?: towards a clarification of terminology by Volker Kroening, MdB, Project on Defense Alternatives Guest Commentary, March 2003.
First Strike Guidelines: the case of Iraq
by Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Memo #25, 16 September 2002 (revised and updated 10 March 2003, postscript added 01 March 2004). Assesses how the case of Iraq measures up within a set of guidelines for preemptive counterproliferation developed by the director of the Air Force Counterproliferation Center. Includes extensive notes with links to material relevant to making an informed decision about war.
The original 16 September 2002 edition is available in a PDF version and a HTML version.
Bush Raises the Stakes in Iraq by Charles Knight, PDA Commentary, 03 July 2002. Argues that President Bush's declared policy of "regime change" for Iraq destroys the incentives of deterrence and increases the risk of U.S. troops being exposed to Iraq's defensive use of chemical weapons. Distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate and posted on the Foreign Policy In Focus Website. (.pdf version also available)
Inspecting Iraq: A Record of the First 40 Days
compiled by the Project on Defense Alternatives, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 04 January 2003. With war and peace hanging in the balance, what evidence of prohibited weapons have UN inspectors found in Iraq? This compendium of press reports provides a thorough review of the UNMOVIC inspections through 4 January 2003.
Don't Court Disaster In Iraq by Alan J. Kuperman, November 1999. This commentary replies to an advocate of U.S. support for military insurgency against the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The author finds this extension of the Reagan doctrine unconvincing in its intended effect and a danger to regional stability. Originally appeared as a letter to the editor of the Wall Street Journal on 18 November 1999.
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Afghanistan
US aid to Afghanistan, Taliban in government, Afghan casualties, permanent bases in the Mideast by Bipasha Ray. Defense Analysis Bulletin #1, 24 January 2007.
Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a "New Warfare" (full text .html) (executive summary .html) (printable full text .pdf) (printable executive summary .pdf) by Carl Conetta. PDA Research Monograph #9, 18 February 2004. Examines the Pentagon's treatment of the civilian casualty issue in the Iraq and Afghan wars, reviews the "spin" and "news frames" used by defense officials to shape the public debate over casualties, and critiques the concept of a "precision warfare" as misleading. Case studies include the Baghdad bombing campaign. An appendix provides a comprehensive Guide to Surveys and Reporting on Casualties in the Afghan and Iraq Wars.
& Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war (full text) (executive summary) by Carl Conetta, PDA Research Monograph #6, 30 January 2002. Why the inadvertent effects of the war are now overtaking the intended ones. Includes appendices addressing: the war's impact on the humanitarian crisis; the missing political framework for American action; the source of power and the strategy of the Taliban; the limits of the Bonn agreement and the challenges facing the interim government. printable .pdf versions are also available: (full text .pdf) (executive summary .pdf)
Executive Summary
also available in print. $5.00 
Operation Enduring Freedom: Why a Higher Rate of Civilian Bombing Casualties by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #13, 18 January 2002. Examines the extent and causes of civilian bombing casualties in the Afghanistan war and explores why the civilian casualties were higher than in the Serbia/Kosovo campaign despite fewer bombs dropped. Includes appendices: estimation of civilian bombing casualties: method and sources; resolving discrepancies in casualty accounts.
Beyond bin Laden:
The Temptations of a Wider War by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #22, 28 September 2001. Offering a review of US military options in response to 11 September, this article rejects large-scale attacks on Afghanistan due to their likely negative impact on regional stability and international cooperation. As an alternative it proposes smaller-scale military operations against the bin Laden network combined with multinational law enforcement activities worldwide.
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