Archive for August, 2009

Mullen’s Strategic Communication

Marc Lynch. The New ForeignPolicy.com, 31 August 2009.
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/08/31/mullens_strategic_communication

Commander’s Initial Assessment

Stanley A. McChrystal. NATO International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan, 30 August 2009 (unclassified). Hosted on the Commonwealth Institute website.
http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/090830mcchrystal.pdf

Excerpt:

NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) requires a new strategy that is credible to, and sustainable by, the Afghans.

Assessment of US Strategy in Afghanistan

Ravi Rikjye. Intelligence, 29 August 2009.
http://int-history.blogspot.com/2009/08/my-friend-ravi-rikhyes-assessment-of-us.html

The Road Home From Afghanistan: Why a flexible timetable to withdraw U.S. troops will best advance our national security interests

Russ Feingold. Wall Street Journal, 28 August 2009.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203706604574376872733294910.html

The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review: A+, F, or Dead on Arrival?

Anthony H. Cordesman & Erin K. Fitzgerald. CSIS, 27 August 2009 (Working Draft)
http://csis.org/files/publication/090809_qdrahc_revised.pdf

Excerpt:

… the legacy of interrelated problems raises serious questions as to whether the next QDR will be more meaningful than its predecessors in creating a strategy that actually shapes US forces, procurements, and readiness. The 2010 QDR has the potential to be the next step in the reform process and to institutionalize the reforms Gates initiated with his budget cuts.

It is unclear the extent to which it will realize its potential, given the scale needed to make meaningful decisions, create an affordable force posture, fund credible levels of manpower, fully restructure DOD’s failed procurement plans, and deal with the real world cost and impact of the two ongoing wars.

The search for answers is being structured around the concept of “hybrid warfare,” which requires the broadest possible range of force capabilities and flexibilities across the spectrum of operations. Hybrid warfare may be an intellectual improvement over the emphasis on conventional warfighting in past reviews, but so far the concept is so loosely defined, that it does not provide clear criteria for decision-making. Service efforts to define it have so far been little more that shopping lists for every possible contingency mixed with buzzwords that appear to have meaning only as long as they are no examined in any detail. In practice, any concept that effectively justifies anything ends in justifying absolutely nothing.

OSD Considers Chopping Flattop

Greg Grant. DoD Buzz, 26 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/26/osd-considers-chopping-flattop/

Editor’s comment

The Project on Defense Alternatives recommended in 2007 reducing the carrier fleet by two saying “reform along these lines would allow a 9-carrier, 8-wing fleet to surge ‘five plus one’ for crisis response. In 2010, these six carriers, fully utilized and equipped with weapons now being fielded or procured, should be able to strike well over twice as many targets per day as the five that deployed for Operation Iraqi Freedom.”

McChrystal Defines The Mission

Greg Grant. DoD Buzz, 26 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/26/mcchrystal-defines-the-mission/

DoD’s Program Priorities — Making Do

Pentagon Brief, 26 August 2009.
http://pentagonbrief.blogspot.com/2009/08/dods-program-priorities-making-do.html

QDR An Honest Review? Rep. Akin

Todd Akin. DoD Buzz, 25 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/25/qdr-an-honest-review-rep-akins/

see also: Is the QDR ‘a PR stunt’ or a sincere effort to reconcile posture and budget with strategy?

Some Thoughts on Obama’s Speech

Patrick Porter. Kings of War, 20 August 2009.
http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/2009/08/20/some-thoughts-on-obamas-speech/

QDR: It’s Over, Barring Surprises

Colin Clark. DoD Buzz, 18 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/18/qdr-its-over-barring-surprises/

National Guard cannot revert to strategic reserve

Ellen Krenke. Pentagon Brief, 17 August 2009.
http://pentagonbrief.blogspot.com/2009/08/national-guard-cannot-revert-to.html

Obama’s Speech on Afghanistan and Pakistan, August 2009

Barack Obama. Veterans of Foreign Wars Convention at the Phoenix Convention Center, 17 August 2009.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/20038/obamas_speech_on_afghanistan_and_pakistan_august_2009.html

Army readies draft of modernization plan

Megan Scully. Congress Daily, 17 August 2009.
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0809/081709cdpm2.htm

Getting the Army Mix Right

Greg Grant. DoD Buzz, 17 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/17/getting-the-army-mix-right/

Obama submits plan to pay for troops

Megan Scully. Congress Daily, 14 August 2009.
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0809/081409cdpm1.htm

Health Costs Squeezing DoD Budgets

Greg Grant. DoD Buzz, 13 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/13/health-costs-squeezing-dod-budgets/

Outside Intervention in Internal Wars

Donald M. Snow. New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog, 13 August 2009.
http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/outside-intervention-internal-wars

US and British Governments Concerned about Overstretching Resources

Rebecca Williams. Budget Insight, 12 August 2009.
http://thewillandthewallet.squarespace.com/blog/2009/8/12/us-and-british-governments-concerned-about-overstretching-re.html

United States Government Integrated Civilian – Military Campaign Plan for Support to Afghanisitan

Karl W. Eikenberry and Stanley A. McChrystal. Embassy of the U.S.A. Kabul and U.S. Forces Afghanistan. 10 August 2009 (printable .pdf file). Hosted on the Commonwealth Institute Website.
http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/0908eikenberryandmcchrystal.pdf

Containment Succeeded, Pre-emption Failed — Time For A New National Strategy?

an expert online panel, National Journal National Security Expert Blog, 10 August 2009.

CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update

CBO Director’s Blog, 07 August 2009.

Excerpt:

CBO estimates that if the Social Security payroll tax rate was increased immediately and permanently by 1.3 percentage points—from the current rate of 12.4 percent to 13.7 percent—the trust funds’ balance at the end of 2083 would equal projected outlays for the subsequent year.

QDR Team: Big Threats Matter

Greg Grant. DoD Buzz, 07 August 2009.

QDR 2010 Phase II and Phase III Timelines

Inside Defense reports (Jason Sherman, 06 August 2009) keys dates for completion of the QDR 2010:

Phase II (July to November)

August 14 – Services submit 2011 FYDPs to OSD

September 01 – Comptroller and Capabilities Assessment and Program Evaluation Directorate ‘begin critique’ of the POM

October 15 – QDR issue teams finalize policy papers

November 06 – QDR issue teams finalize summary briefs

December 04 – completion of program and budget review and DoD FY-11 budget request

Phase III

November 15 – beginning of QDR document drafting and “intensive pre-release outreach”

January – Sec. Gates approves final draft before transmitting it to Congress in February

US Air Force sets up new command for nuclear forces

(AFP) – 06 August 2009.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hcJrEkpPFI7S6O7brJyd-AQ4FnQg

Exclusive: Army Talks FCS Folo

Colin Clark. DoD Buzz, 06 August 2009.
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/08/06/exclusive-army-talks-gcv/

A New Approach to Safeguarding Americans

John Brennan. speech at CSIS, 06 August 2009. Transcription at Council on Foreign Relations Website.

Intervention Today Means a Less Secure Tomorrow

William Pfaff. Tribune Media Services, 05 August 2009.

excerpt:

…the more wars you undertake abroad, the more places you intervene, and the more bases you build around the world, the less secure you are.

QDR Watch: Army Force Structure

Colin Clark. DoDBuzz, 04 August 2009.

Ochmanek: most QDRs are disappointments because they dumb down scenarios

re: Is the QDR ‘a PR stunt’ or a sincere effort to reconcile posture and budget with strategy?

from John T. Bennett, “Shaping the Future Gates Emphasizes Balance, Preparing for Most Likely Conflict Scenarios”, Defense News, 03 August 2009:

[David] Ochmanek admitted that “most QDRs are disappointments” because those working the studies “almost unconsciously” aim to avoid controversy. So they do things like “dumb down the scenarios” on which the congressionally mandated studies are based.

This version, he said, will be different because this defense secretary is different.

“He is a different kind of secretary,” Ochmanek said. “Gates embraces complexity.”

Shaping the Future: Gates Emphasizes Balance, Preparing for Most Likely Conflict Scenarios

John T. Bennett. Defense News, 3 August 2009.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4218185

excerpt:

Barry Posen, director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said “recasting all your forces for these ‘new operations’ isn’t so smart … especially considering no one wants to do another Iraq or Afghanistan.”

Posen sees a new force-planning construct that centers on “one MCO, one endless counterinsurgency operation, and then all the other things [the administration] will want the military to do.” Under such a scenario, Posen said, “you would probably work it so you could ramp up for another MCO, if something popped up.”

U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF): Background and Issues for Congress

Andrew Feickert. Congressional Research Service, 03 August 2009.
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RS21048.pdf

U.S. Navy May Extend Some F/A-18s in Wait for F-35C

Antonie Boessenkool. Defense News, 03 August 2009.

excerpt:

“They must, they absolutely must, enter the fleet on time and on budget,” [Adm. Gary Roughead, chief of naval operations] said, stand­ing before a green-painted F-35C at Lockheed Martin’s assembly plant here. “If we don’t get this airplane on time, we’re going to realize a gap in the number of airplanes we take to sea.” Roughead said the Navy may ex­tend the service life of its older F/A-18 models as it waits.

Editor’s comment:

The Navy could relax its delivery schedule for the new fighter by five years or so if it downsizes its carrier fleet (without sacrificing strategic power projection) as recommended by the Project on Defense Alternatives. This would free up newer F/A-18s to replace older ones in the Navy’s remaining active air fleet.

See also: “No Navy Fighter Gap: PAE” — http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/05/05/no-navy-fighter-gap/

Comparative World Military Spending by Absolute Level and as Percentage of GDP

Military Spending Worldwide

source: infographic, Visual Economics, 02 August 2009

The National Intelligence Strategy

Office of the Director of National Intelligence, August 2009.
http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf